By Ismail Serageldin, Chairman of the Consultative Group
on International Agricultural Research
and Vice President of Special Programs, The World Bank
Some 40,000 people die every day worldwide from hunger-related causes, says Ismail Serageldin. The demands for food to meet the expanding global population are growing faster than the ability of food producers to meet those demands. Increases in food production will have to come from increasing biological yields, and not from area expansion and more irrigation. Agricultural transformation, Serageldin says, "will be essential to meet the global challenges of reducing poverty, feeding the world's burgeoning population, and protecting the environment."
The world's population is expected to exceed 8 billion by 2025 -- an increase of 2.5 billion over the current level. Much, but not all, of the increase will occur in developing countries, and there will be many more mouths to feed in complex circumstances.
Nobel laureate Norman Borlaug, father of the Green Revolution, calculates that "to meet projected food demands, by 2025 the average yield of all cereals must be 80 percent higher than the average yield in 1990." These increases must come primarily from increasing biological yields, not from area expansion and more irrigation; over-consumption and waste in rich countries and population pressure in poor countries have already placed dangerous burdens on the ecosystems on which we all depend.
Meanwhile, poverty and hunger persist in our world of plenty despite the enormous burst of output and productivity, the dazzling changes shaped by science and technology, and the amazing achievements recorded on the social indicators for so many of the people on the planet. Food production capacity is widespread and substantial, yet millions are too poor to provide for their essential needs. Some 40,000 people die from hunger-related causes every day.
MEETING THE GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL CHALLENGE
Agriculture is central to our management of these problems in the new millennium. Agricultural growth is essential to economic growth in most developing countries. Very few low-income countries have achieved rapid nonagricultural growth without corresponding rapid agricultural growth. Conversely, most of the developing countries that grew rapidly during the 1980s experienced rapid agricultural growth in the preceding years. Agriculture, moreover, is the primary interface between people and the environment.
So agricultural transformation will be essential to meet the global challenges of reducing poverty, feeding the world's burgeoning population, and protecting the environment. This transformation will have to occur at the level of small-holder farmers so that their complex farming systems can be made more productive and efficient in the use of resources.
The challenge is both technological (requiring the development of new high-productivity, environmentally sustainable production systems) and political (requiring policies that do not discriminate against rural areas in general and against agriculture in particular), and it will have to be accomplished at a time when attention to agricultural development and rural well-being is diminishing. An essential aspect of the response to this challenge is to harness all instruments of sustainable agricultural growth.
THE ROLE OF CGIAR
A major responsibility falls on the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), the only organization in the world that exists solely to mobilize the best in agricultural science on behalf of the world's poor and hungry. The CGIAR, created in 1971, is an informal association of 58 public and private sector members supporting 16 international agricultural research centers. The United States was a founding member of the CGIAR and plays an important role in formulating its policies.
The international centers develop advanced breeding material for adoption and use by national agricultural research systems (NARS) in developing countries. The CGIAR works with a range of partners in the public and private sectors. Its research products are international public goods unconditionally available to poor farmers, national programs, and other users.
The CGIAR is ideally positioned to address the next compelling challenge that agricultural scientists must confront: combining conventional research with the promise of the genetic revolution. Just as the Green Revolution has fed millions and served as the basis of economic transformation, we have to ensure that the gene revolution leads to a "doubly green revolution" in which increased productivity and natural resource management are in balance. The poor will thereby be enabled to begin their ascent from poverty.
THE PROMISE OF BIOTECHNOLOGY
The revolution in the biological sciences -- molecular genetics, informatics, and genomics research -- has opened up all sorts of possibilities. The promise of biotechnology as an instrument of development lies in its capacity to improve the quantity and quality of plants and animals quickly and effectively. The time required to identify and combine favorable traits through traditional crop breeding is greatly reduced. Increased precision in plant breeding translates into improved predictability of the resulting products in performance and survival.
The application of biotechnology can create plants that are more drought resistant, more salt tolerant, more resistant to pests -- without pesticides. Plant characteristics can be genetically altered for earlier maturity, increased transportability, reduced post-harvest losses, and improved nutritional quality. Vaccines against diseases afflicting livestock are already important products of biotechnological research.
In the past few years, there have been continuing increases in the area planted to transgenic crops. In 1998 the global area of transgenic crops more than doubled over that of 1997, with the United States leading the field with 20.5 million hectares (one hectare is equal to 2.47 acres), 74 percent of the global area. The five principal crops grown are soybeans, maize (corn), cotton, canola/rapeseed, and potatoes. In terms of transgenic trait, the largest area was occupied by herbicide-tolerant crop varieties (71 percent), followed by insect-resistant varieties (28 percent).
Most of the early products of agricultural biotechnology focus on crop protection. In 1998, transgenic crops that are herbicide tolerant covered about 19.8 million hectares. Use of herbicide-tolerant varieties greatly facilitates weed control using certain types of herbicide. It also enables farmers to employ soil conservation practices such as minimum tillage, which reduces soil erosion.
As for increased plant resistance to pests, in 1998 an estimated 7.7 million hectares were planted to transgenic crops with introduced genes that produce substances toxic to target insect pests. This has resulted in the reduced use of insecticides, a positive impact not only on farm income but also on the environment.
Research is under way, as well, to improve the nutritional quality or value of some food crops in developing countries. For instance, Swiss scientists have developed genetically modified rice that has higher levels of Vitamin A and iron. With some 2.4 billion people consuming rice as their staple cereal, this "new" rice can potentially prevent cases of blindness and anemia, particularly among millions of children in developing countries.
ISSUES AND CONCERNS
The revolution in the biological sciences has both promise and problems. We are confronted by profound ethical and safety issues, complicated by the issues of proprietary science. Some of the concerns come from scientists who wonder if the results of these scientific efforts could produce "super weeds" or "super viruses." Many protests have been made by civil society institutions on ethical or ecological grounds. The dominance of the private sector in the North, where the bulk of developments in agro-biotechnology have so far taken place, raises fears that this will create a new phase of comparative disadvantage and increased dependency in the South.
Very much at issue are patenting and intellectual property rights (IPR). Supporters of patenting point out that if the private sector is to mobilize and invest large sums of money in research and development in agro-biotechnology, it has a powerful claim to protecting and recouping what it has put into the exercise. On the other side of the argument is the fear that patenting and the exercise of IPR will lead to a monopolization of knowledge, restricted access to germplasm, controls over the research process, selectivity in the focus of research, the development of science and technology apartheid, and, thereby, the increased marginalization of the majority of the world's population.
These concerns cannot and must not be ignored. In October, the CGIAR and the U.S. National Academy of Sciences held an international conference ("Ensuring Food Security, Protecting the Environment, and Reducing Poverty: Can Biotechnology Help?") to examine the full range of issues connected with the development and use of agro-biotechnology, and in particular to discuss safeguards against its perceived hazards. The conference, held at the World Bank in Washington, brought together scientists, governments, the civil society, and professional communicators for an open discussion of the issues. (For further information, see the CGIAR Web site available at http://www.cgiar.org).
The critical issue is that every instrument of agricultural transformation should be mobilized in our efforts to feed the hungry, help the poor, and protect the environment. We cannot accept the notion that deprivation is imprinted on the genes of the poor and destitute, with misery their inevitable destiny. The ethical dimension of depriving them of the advantages that biotechnology with adequate safeguards can bring must be weighed against other ethical concerns. Both sets of issues need to be confronted boldly. We must find ways of realizing the promise of biotechnology while avoiding the pitfalls.
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Note: The opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views or policies
of the U.S. government.