Intelligence Key to Anti-terrorism in Africa, Former Ambassador Says

Shinn discusses possible U.S. involvement in Somalia

Washington -- Terming U.S. monitoring of potential terrorist sites in Africa a correct course, former Ambassador to Ethiopia David Shinn called recently for "continued collection of intelligence and surveillance of the waters off shore and the airspace above Somalia."

While many American officials have been tight-lipped about possible military action in Africa, "leave no doubt that Somalia is being looked at carefully," said Shinn, who made his comments January 29 at George Washington University in Washington, in a speech titled "The Horn of Africa and International Terrorism."

Shinn, who served as the deputy director of the Somalia Task Force and coordinator for Somalia in 1992 and 1993, recognized that "there has been a major effort to improve our intelligence on Somalia." The United States has also "solicited the cooperation of Somalia's neighbors...both on the intelligence front and on a contingency basis for use of their territory in a future action in Somalia."

He identified intelligence as a major obstacle in action against Somalia because "there has been no on-the-ground American presence and precious few visitors to the southern two-thirds of Somalia since 1994." Shinn added, "U.S. understanding of events and intelligence on Somalia has been abysmal -- at least until recently."

In the U.S. effort to cut off funding of terrorist organizations, "the U.S. seized the assets and shut down the U.S. offices of al-Barakat, the leading Somali money transfer company that the U.S. says has links to al-Qaeda. Al-Barakat also ran a long-distance telephone company using AT&T services. That is no longer in operation," said Shinn.

The United States has also had some international support for its efforts in Somalia as "German, French, [and] American planes and ships have significantly increased surveillance of the 1,900-mile-long [3040-kilometer long] Somali coast and Somali airspace, with the goal of preventing al-Qaeda members from entering Somalia from Afghanistan," said Shinn.

"These are all appropriate measures," said the former ambassador.

Shinn also recommended taking action against al-Ittihad, a Somali-based terrorist organization that "evolved in the aftermath of the collapse of the Somali national government." Al-Ittihad's goals include the creation of "an Islamic state in Somalia and either to incorporate the Ogaden [the huge eastern region of Ethiopia peopled mostly by Somalis] into that state or at least free it of Ethiopian control," according to the former ambassador. Al-Ittihad is also allegedly connected to al-Qaeda, he said.

Putting "pressure on factions in Somalia to remove al-Ittihad and al-Qaeda" and "work[ing] closely with Somalia's neighbors and encourag[ing] them to crack down on al-Ittihad supporters" were among the suggestions made by Shinn for U.S. action.

The former ambassador also discussed the possibility of a "snatch and grab" operation against members of al-Ittihad, a strategy that was used by the United States in its 1993 campaign in Somalia. "If an opportunity based on incontrovertible intelligence arises for the snatch of a major terrorist, grab it," he said.

Shinn voiced concern about taking military action in Somalia similar to that taken in Afghanistan. "It is unlikely there are any terrorist training camps left," and "any al-Ittihad follower with any brains has long since tried to blend in with other Somalis. One can seriously ask if there are any targets to bomb," said Shinn.

As for the "snatch and grab" strategy, Shinn pointed to the U.S. record in Mogadishu from 1993, which "was not very good, even when the U.S. had thousands of troops on the ground." Shinn concluded, "There was just too much bad intelligence."

"The military options are not very inviting, especially when the threat to the United States from Somalia seems questionable," said Shinn, and he recommended that "the U.S. avoid significant military action in Somalia" until "intelligence indicates there is a greater threat than appears to be the case now."

The former ambassador added, "If the international community wants to deal meaningfully with the long-term problem of Islamic fundamentalism in Somalia, it should consider steps that help lead to the establishment of a viable national government."